Looking over the data for the past three years for Manhattan Beach real estate and examining the trend lines a few things come to light. These of course assume relative domestic and international stability and no significant changes to interest rates or monetary policy. I would predict a modest uptick in prices during Q1. Historically, the real estate market starts to pickup after the Holidays, usually at the end of January. With low interest rates and continued low unemployment, the prospect should be good for the same scenario. The consensus forecast at the NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit said gross domestic product (GDP) would rise 2.0 percent with 3.7 percent unemployment and a 3.8 percent average mortgage rate in 2020. That’s all good news. However, there are four unique factors that will likely further impact the outcome:
- The upcoming Presidential Impeachment Hearing in the Senate,
- The upcoming Presidential election,
- A resolution to the trade tariff wars, and
- Middle East / Iran tensions.
It’s fair to say that the positive resolution to trade wars will benefit Manhattan Beach real estate. But, trying to predict the other three are impossible.